leveraging the funds to promote the economy in an orderly way - comments on the financial and financial data in the third quarter

zēng gang, director of national bank financial and development laboratory center, cass institute of finance, banking director

since the third quarter, financial deleveraging policy has made significant progress.financial vacancy has been a good curb.moreover, with the passage of practice, the short-term impact of the deleveraging policy on banks has been gradually digested.after the second quarter, the net profit margin of the banking sector steadily, profitability has rebounded.the optimization of financial assets investment also contributed to the steady growth of the real economy, structural adjustment, steady economic growth, economic structure improved significantly, the quality of growth has improved.in the medium and long term, the financial return to the real economy can be stable for the good to create a better monetary and financial environment, in turn, but also for the financial industry to lay a solid foundation for sustainable development.this year, under the tone of"financial deleveraging", monetary policy and regulatory force have had a significant impact on financial markets, especially in the bond market.

the purpose of strong regulation is mainly to guard against financial risks and to promote the return of financial institutions to the origin of the real economy.october 14, the people's bank of the third quarter of this year's financial data.on the same day, the cbrc also issued a series of bank operating data.on 19 october, the bureau of statistics released economic data for the third quarter of 2017.from these financial and economic data, to the end of the third quarter, the currency has been effectively curtailed, the return of the banking industry, the trend is obvious, the funds off the real, financial support for the real economy has increased, , structural improvement, quality improvement.the total amount of money:the slowdown in monetary growth, the increase in the total amount of financing, deleveraging did not cause a negative impact on the real economy

    (a) the end of september, the broad money(m2) balance 165.57 trillion yuan, an increase of 9.2%, the growth rate higher than the previous month by 0.3 percentage points, the end of the continuous downward trend.but the overall remained at a low level, of which, with the industry's currency derived significantly decreased, indicating that the financial idle has been a certain degree of inhibition.(2) the financing structure has been optimized

the first three quarters of the total social financing of 15.67 trillion, more than the same period last year increased by 2.21 trillion yuan, of which the new rmb loans accounted for an absolute proportion of other financing increased mainly from the trust loans and non-discount acceptance bills, which, trust loans over the same period last year increased by 1.3 trillion yuan, not discounted acceptance of the first three quarters of this year an increase of 465.9 billion yuan, compared with the same period last year to reduce the 2 trillion yuan; on the contrary, the commission loans decreased by 829.9 billion yuan over the same period last year, corporate bonds, net financing of less than 24,400.

the steady decline in m2 growth is in stark contrast to the growth of social financing and new credit., financial leverage to effectively guide the funds to the real economy, the previous three quarters of economic data, financial deleveraging did not cause a negative impact on the real economy.the first three quarters of gross domestic product 59328.8 billion yuan, an increase of 6.9%, growth rate with the first half of the year, up 0.2 percentage points over the same period last year.sub-industry, the first industry grew 3.7%; secondary industry grew 6.3%; tertiary industry grew 7.8%.among them, the third quarter gross domestic product grew 6.8%, the economy for nine consecutive quarters running in the 6.7-6.9% range, to maintain high growth.(1) bank credit support for the real economy continues to improve.

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interbank assets and industry liabilities continued to increase year on year.as of september 2017, the same industry assets, industry liabilities were reduced by 2.6 trillion yuan and 2 trillion yuan respectively.of which joint-stock banks and industry counterparts fell 45% compared with the beginning of the year; financial products balance year on year growth rate fell to 4%, down 30 percentage points over the same period last year, has been declining for eight consecutive months, of which the industry since the cumulative reduction of 2.6 trillion yuan; small and medium-sized banks decline is particularly evident, city commercial firms and agricultural firms financial year-on-year growth rate, year on year decline of 40 and 90 percentage points.

the banking sector voluntarily compressed the scale of the scale, some of the off-balance sheet funds back to the table, the proportion of loans accounted for the rise in assets.at the end of september, loans increased by 13.2% year on year, higher than the same period the asset growth rate of 2.6 percentage points.the first nine months of new loans 11.5 trillion yuan, accounting for the proportion of new assets over the same period last year increased by 37.8 percentage points.accounting for the proportion of new assets increased by 35.5 percentage points over the same period last year.

among them, the first three quarters of the manufacturing sector loan growth for nine consecutive months to maintain positive growth, growth over the same period last year increased by 2.6 percentage points; 1.1 percentage points.

the investment in engineering loans and infrastructure industry increased by 15.7%, 43.8% and 15.8% respectively over the same period of last year.the investment in related industries increased and then increased, but the related investment of high-tech added value and weak economy of the national economy continued to grow.among them, the first three quarters of infrastructure investment 9965200000000 yuan, up 19.8% over the same period last year to speed up 0.4 percentage points; despite the real estate sales growth decline significantly, but the real estate development investment in the early sales support and protection of housing, shantytowns the overall growth remained stable, the first three quarters of the cumulative growth rate of 8.1%; water conservancy, links and public facilities management industry investment growth rate of 22.8%, the overall remained stable; high-end manufacturing and enterprise technological transformation investment growth , high energy consumption industry investment growth slowed down.in the first three quarters, investment in high-tech manufacturing, equipment manufacturing and manufacturing technological transformation increased by 18.4%, 8.3% and 12.1% respectively over the same period of last year.the cumulative growth rate of computer, communication and other electronic manufacturing industry was 25.3% yoy, 14 percentage points, while high energy consumption manufacturing industry fell 1.9% year on year.

specific target carrier(spv) investment funds empty phenomenon is prominent, nesting level more, plus a clear lever.in the context of regulatory strengthening, spv investment and entrusted loan growth slowed down this year, which means that the capital chain to the real economy is shortened, and the phenomenon of multi-layer nesting plus levers plus chain is obviously curbed.spv investment increased by more than 4 trillion yuan, a substantial decline over the same period last year dropped 47 percentage points.entrusted loan balance since april this year has been to maintain the trend, an increase of less than 6 billion yuan.(a) the industrial structure has been transferred from the industry to the service industry.(1) the industrial structure has been shifted from the industry to the service sector.

since the contribution rate of the tertiary industry to economic growth in 2015 has exceeded that of the secondary industry, the contribution rate of service industry to economic growth has increased significantly since the beginning of the year.this stage of the industrial structure adjustment, has stabilized at 60% from top to bottom, while the secondary industry contribution to economic growth has dropped to below 40% range, currently about 36% remained stable.in the first three quarters of 2017, the contribution rates of the first, second and third industries to economic growth were 4.1%, 36.1% and 59.8% respectively.consumption has become the main driving force of economic growth, the first three quarters of the final consumption expenditure on gdp growth contribution rate of 64.5% over the same period last year increased by 2.8 percentage points.consumption growth:online consumption is active, the rural consumer market potential highlights the consumption of non-essential goods growth

the past two years, consumption increased the overall speed remained stable.the first three quarters of 2017, the total retail sales of social consumer goods 26317.8 billion yuan, an increase of 10.4%, growth rate unchanged from the same period last year.

this year, the rural consumer market potential highlights.the retail sales of urban consumer goods fell by 0.2 percentage points from the same period of last year, while the retail sales of rural consumer goods reached rmb3,758.6 billion, up by 12.1%, up by 1.2 percentage points over the same period last year.

the growth of rural consumption and the rapid growth of online consumption, mobile internet to promote the production and marketing chain to shorten the traffic network developed more convenient logistics is not unrelated.the first three quarters, the national online retail sales of 4878.7 billion yuan, an increase of 34.2% over the same period last year to accelerate 8.1 percentage points.among them, online retail sales of physical goods 368.26 billion yuan, an increase of 29.1%, accounting for the proportion of total retail sales of social consumer goods 14.0%, an increase of 2.3 percentage points; non-physical goods online retail sales of 119.61 billion yuan, an increase of 52.8%.

consumer upgrades are growing faster, with a slight decline in daily necessities and a rebound in car consumption.the first three quarters of sports entertainment category increased by 17.4%, cosmetics category increased by 12.1%, construction and decoration materials increased by 12.6%.the consumption of grain, oil, food, daily necessities, alcohol and tobacco and other consumer goods fell slightly compared with last year, affected by the decline in real estate sales, furniture consumption, construction and decoration consumption fell to 13.3%, 12.6%.automobile consumption increased by 6.2% year on year, up 7 percentage points from the beginning of the year, but down about 3 percentage points from the same period last year.

in the first three quarters of 2017, the industrial added value 6.7% growth rate over the same period last year to speed up 0.7 percentage points.from the industrial structure point of view, the industry to the high-end forward, the first three quarters of high-tech manufacturing and equipment manufacturing industry added value year on year growth of 13.4% and 11.6%, respectively, faster than the scale of industrial 6.7 and 4.9 percentage points; industrial added value increased by 11.3%, 4.6 times faster than the scale of the industry.(4) significant improvement in corporate profits, energy consumption fell year on year, the quality of economic growth increased

1-8 months, the national industrial enterprises above designated size the total profit of the industrial enterprises was 6.13%, 0.45 percentage points higher than that of the same period of last year.the operating income of the enterprises above designated size increased by 13.5% over the same period of last year.the profit of the enterprises with the above scale increased by 13.5% the same period to speed up 3.4 percentage points; above-scale service enterprises operating profit grew 22.8%, up 22.4 percentage points year on year.the first three quarters, above-scale industrial enterprises production and sales rate reached 97.8%.environmental inspection performance is obvious, the growth of energy consumption, unit gdp energy consumption fell 3.8%.

the above data is not difficult to see that the third quarter, the financial deleveraging policy has made significant progress.financial vacancy has been a good curb.moreover, with the passage of practice, the short-term impact of the deleveraging policy on banks has been gradually digested.after the second quarter, the net profit margin of the banking sector steadily, profitability has rebounded.

the optimization of financial assets investment also contributed to the steady growth of the real economy, structural adjustment, steady economic growth, economic structure improved significantly, the quality of growth has improved.in the medium and long term, the financial return to the real economy can be stable for the good to create a better monetary and financial environment, in turn, but also for the financial industry to lay a solid foundation for sustainable development.

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